What's New With EVs and Other Green Vehicles? Not Much!

Not much new in electric vehicles and other green cars, say experts at Automotive News conference

By Steve Purdy
TheAutoChannel.com
Detroit Bureau

We spent a couple days this week talking about electric cars, and listening to experts and advocates talk about the future of automotive electrification as well as many other kinds of environmentally friendly cars at the Automotive News Green Car Conference in Novi, Michigan. Automotive News is one of the automotive industry’s premier business publications. We heard of no breakthroughs or dramatic advances to cheer about – just the same tenacious pursuit of a nebulous goal. Surprisingly, not once did we hear the word ethanol in the mix.

The conference provided a forum for major automakers and established suppliers to come together with academics, entrepreneurs, inventors, journalists and hangers on to share stories about what is working, what is not and where we might be going. It felt much like a pep rally for political correctness. We found few skeptics in the mix of participants at this show, but perhaps they weren’t invited.

At the center of all these discussions seems always to be prognostications of what impact hybrids, electrics and alternative fuel vehicles will have on the market. These predictions have not changed much in the last few years as everyone tries peering into different crystal balls. We continue to hear predictions of market penetration for electrics and hybrids by the middle of the next decade from 5% to 15%. That’s a rather broad range, I’d say. My cracked, etched and foggy crystal ball says it will be on the low end of that range.

Automotive News took the opportunity of the conference to honor what they call the Electtrifying 100 - count ‘em, 100 people from the automotive industry, utilities, government, advocacy and finance who have contributed to the advancement of electrification. I wonder if there are 100 more they can honor next year, if they want to do it again.

In the parking lot we had the opportunity to drive, and ride in, a good variety of pure electrics, plug-in hybrids and even a clean diesel. Of course, the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf were there as was a Lincoln MKZ Hybrid and Ford Transit Connect electric small van and a VW Jetta TDI. The point in the parking lot seemed to be that there isn’t just one approach to dealing with our impending personal transportation problems.

Some of us even got a ride in a 1919 Rauch & Lang Double Drive Electric Coach. The electric car genre is not really new, you see. Automotive News editor-in-chief, Kieth Crain brought his own 1916 Detroit Electric as well, but just to show, not to ride in or drive.

We also heard testimony from many speakers that there is plenty of life yet in the internal combustion engine. Talented engineers all over the world working for hundreds of companies continue to wring out more and more efficiency from traditional gasoline and diesel engines including making them run on other fuels like natural gas and ethanol. Multi-speed transmissions also trend forward. Seven- eight- and nine-speed transmissions are emerging. Simon Roberts of Antonov PLC put it best by comparing cars of 40 years ago that had big engines with small transmissions to today’s trend of ever-smaller engines with ever bigger transmissions.

A tiny company from the industrial midlands of England, Antonov is developing a three-speed transmission for electric cars that they expect will further increase the efficiency of that already efficient motor. That transmission is going into an experimental Jaguar limousine as we speak. Since electric motors develop maximum torque from a dead stop the use of mulit-gear transmissions has not been considered necessary. But what if, Mr. Roberts says, we can make that motor work better with a multi-speed transmission.

Much of the innovation we’ve experienced, and much to come, will be generated by these niche engineering companies. But, of course, government support will be a huge factor as well. The problem is, as seems universally acknowledged, government tends to “pick winners” to the exclusion of promising technologies of the periphery.