Cox Automotive January Forecast: U.S. Auto Sales Volume Holds Steady, Inventory Levels Remain Tight
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ATLANTA, Jan. 26, 2022 -- New-vehicle sales in January are expected to reach 1.01 million units, a drop of 8.9% compared to January 2021, according to a forecast released today by Cox Automotive. The January pace of U.S. auto sales, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), is forecast to show a sizable month-over-month improvement and finish near 15.3 million, up from 12.4 million in December, which was the slowest pace since May 2020.
Improvement in the January sales pace is a positive sign for the market, but it is mostly due to seasonality adjustments. In fact, there haven't been any significant market changes to positively impact sales. New vehicle sales remain stuck in the 1.0-to-1.2 million range. January is expected to continue this trend, as the market continues to be held back by tight inventory. New-vehicle inventory is starting 2022 down 61% from last year—that means 1.2 million fewer vehicles available at the start of 2022 compared to the start of 2021.
According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: "A large decline in sales to start the year after a robust holiday shopping period is expected, and adjustments are made to sales data to reflect this. In January, the seasonal factors will reveal that, even though sales volumes are stuck in their current range, the market is moving in the right direction and, importantly, not getting worse."
January 2022 Sales Forecast Highlights
- Light vehicle sales are expected to fall 8.9% from last January and drop 17.1% from December 2021.
- The SAAR is estimated to be 15.3 million, below last year's 16.8 million level, but a notable increase from December's 12.4 million pace.
January 2022 Sales Forecast
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Sales Forecast1 |
Market Share |
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Segment |
Jan-22 |
Jan-21 |
Dec-21 |
YOY% |
MOM% |
Jan-22 |
Dec-21 |
MOM |
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Mid-Size SUV/Crossover |
190,000 |
189,492 |
228,703 |
0.3% |
-16.9% |
18.8% |
18.8% |
0.1% |
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Compact SUV/Crossover |
155,000 |
182,921 |
180,521 |
-15.3% |
-14.1% |
15.3% |
14.8% |
0.5% |
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Full-Size Pickup Truck |
155,000 |
163,397 |
181,730 |
-5.1% |
-14.7% |
15.3% |
14.9% |
0.4% |
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Compact Car |
65,000 |
77,415 |
69,317 |
-16.0% |
-6.2% |
6.4% |
5.7% |
0.7% |
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Mid-Size Car |
60,000 |
74,918 |
65,753 |
-19.9% |
-8.7% |
5.9% |
5.4% |
0.5% |
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Grand Total2 |
1,010,000 |
1,108,953 |
1,219,034 |
-8.9% |
-17.1% |
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1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights data |
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2 Total includes segments not shown |
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