Cox Midweek Auto News

Atlanta GA. January 29, 2025; Quick update, as I'm still unpacking from the trip to NADA 2025, which was a successful run (more on that next week) despite all the obstacles served up by Mother Nature. I'm from Detroit, and I’ll just say the gang in New Orleans, by comparison, doesn't have a lot of experience moving snow.

January was indeed a month of weather, but that’s often the case for January. The fires in Los Angeles were devastating, of course, and a deep freeze swept through much of the country and blasted snow across the south. None of that is good for new-vehicle sales.

The Cox Automotive January new-vehicle sales forecast was posted earlier this week and calls for sales volume of 1.125 million, a decline of more than 25% from a hot December. January typically sees a tumble in volume compared to December – a big hangover from the year-end party – and that’s what we will get this month.

(If sales were evenly paced through a given year, you’d expect 8.333% of annual volume each month: 8.333% x 12 = 100%. But the long-term January average is closer to 6.8% of annual volume, the weakest month of the year. December and March are the powerhouses and average well over 9%. But that's probably one data point too many.)

More importantly, January volume is forecast to be higher year over year, marking four consecutive months of gains. That’s the building momentum our team is witnessing. The SAAR is forecast at 15.8 million, up from 15.0 million in January 2024, and the highest January SAAR in three years. 

The news today, though, is the first Fed meeting of 2025, with Chairman Powell scheduled to weigh in on rates. It should be a relatively simple meeting with no new forecasts at this time, and little reason for a change in policy. As Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke noted after the final meeting of 2024, the Fed is fading into the background while other factors take center stage for the economy and the auto market. This month, the bond market has influenced auto loan rates more than Fed policy, and going forward, every Fed move (or no move) will be fodder for a new White House administration that has a bully pulpit and is not afraid to use it. Smoke will have more to share in the next 24 hours.

Speaking of the new administration, Tesla’s 2024 financial results will be released today after the market closes, and presidential wingman Elon Musk is expected to provide color during the investor call. It has been a newsworthy year for Mr. Musk, to say the least, and, according to full-year EV sales estimates from Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book, his car company is making news as well, with its first sales decline in more than a decade. The fireworks begin at 5:30 pm ET.