Mid-week Auto News Summary
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From the Newsroom, the Cox Automotive newsletter (#160)
Welcome to From the Newsroom, a roundup of news from Cox Automotive and perspectives from its analysts and experts on topics dominating the automotive industry.
Today, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect, adding a new twist to “March madness.” Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke called the move “unthinkable” in the Auto Market Report video and in an article published this morning: “‘Unthinkable’ Comes True: 25% Tariffs on Canada and Mexico Put Auto Market on Uncharted Road”
February sales volume and the initial SAAR — the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales, or sale pace — likely finished slightly below the Cox Automotive forecast, with volume close to 1.22 million and SAAR estimated at 16.0 million. Cox Automotive is forecasting total new-vehicle sales in the U.S. to increase in 2025, reaching 16.3 million units, which would be the highest market level since 2019. For now, all bets are off until the tariffs are lifted.
Cox Automotive’s latest
EV Market Monitor showed a decline in electric vehicle (EV) sales volume, which is typical for January; but market share reaching a record high, reflecting sustained consumer interest. With federal EV tax incentives in question, the February numbers should be more telling. Given the uncertainty surrounding federal EV tax incentives, the data for February will likely provide more insights.Join Us: Register now for the Q1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights and Sales Forecast call, set for Wednesday, March 26, at 11 a.m. EDT.
Visit the Cox Automotive Newsroom for updates on the industry’s most important topics. Bookmark the Auto Market Snapshot, a one-stop dashboard for the data we are tracking.
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February New-Vehicle Sales Likely To Finish Below Forecast February new-vehicle sales likely totaled around 1.22 million, slightly below the Cox Automotive forecast of 1.25 million. The initial February SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is estimated at 16.0 million, higher than January and last February’s pace, but lower than the anticipated 16.3 million by Cox Automotive. Estimates show that fleet sales were weak in February, but retail sales held steady despite a drop in consumer confidence due to economic concerns. As Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke noted, “The daily chaos from Washington has been negatively impacting consumer sentiment and likely contributing to lackluster consumer spending in February. The biggest worry I have for the spring continues to be the trend we’ve seen in interest rates, which moved higher in February.” |
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“Unthinkable” Comes True: 25% Tariffs on Canada and Mexico Put Auto Market on Uncharted Road Tariffs of 25% across North America – depending on how long they last – could likely upend the auto market in the United States and the larger economy. As previously reported, the North American auto market has enjoyed 30 years of free trade, so new tariffs in place for any significant length of time will be disruptive. Cox Automotive’s Economic and Industry Insights team is closely monitoring this evolving story and, when appropriate and possible, is providing fresh perspectives based on the latest information. In February, the team posted initial thoughts: Auto Industry Faces Uncertainty as Tariff Decisions Remain Unclear (published Feb. 18, 2025)Tariffs Across North America Will Upend the Auto Industry (published Feb. 4, 2025) Read the latest from the team. |
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Used-Vehicle Demand Seasonally Strong as Tax Refund Season Heats Up Tax refunds are set to hit critical mass soon, which will drive used-vehicle demand in March. In the Auto Market Report published this morning, Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke reported that 28% of all refunds have been issued so far, the same pace as last year for the same week, as of the week ending Feb. 21. For the most recent week, $102.25 billion has been issued, up 10% year over year. The average refund is now $3,453, up 7.5% year over year. Read the Auto Market Weekly Summary and watch the Auto Market Report. |
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Cox Automotive EV Market Monitor Shows Record High Market Share in January In January, the electric vehicle market experienced revealing trends across both new and used segments. While new EV sales saw a decline in volume, market share reached a record high of 9.1%, reflecting sustained consumer interest. Meanwhile, the used EV market continued to grow, driven by affordability and more model options.
With policy questions swirling, the future of federal EV tax incentives remains uncertain – whether they will be eliminated, reduced or replaced. Current shoppers seem to be hedging their bets with a “buy now” strategy. |
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Join Us: Cox Automotive Industry Insights and Sales Forecast Call The Q1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights and Sales Forecast Call will be hosted on Wednesday, March 26, at 11 a.m. EDT, shortly before the auto industry closes the book on the first quarter. In the upcoming webinar, Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke, along with the Economic and Industry Insights team, will deliver an update on the U.S. automotive industry for March and the first quarter of 2025. This presentation will encompass the electrified, new- and used-vehicle markets, with data and insights from Cox Automotive. If you can’t make the live webinar, be sure to register anyway, and we’ll send you the recording after the event. The presentation will be sent to all registrants one hour prior to the event. |
Contact us if you have questions or want to connect with the Cox Automotive Corporate Communications team.
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